前沿資訊

【獨家】薩默:美以失和與猶太復國主義背馳 伊朗威胁或引发新中东危机

时间:2024-04-13 02:46:47 栏目:國際資訊

注:本文為以色列特拉維夫大學政治學系副教授尤迪·萨默(Udi Sommer)向宣沅獨家供稿,轉載請註明出處:宣沅科技。


US-Israel Relations and the Conflict with Iran, April 2024

Prof. Udi Sommer, Tel Aviv University and John Jay College of the City University of New York

美以關係與伊朗衝突,20244

尤迪·默,以色列特拉維夫大學副教授,美國紐約市立大學約翰傑刑事司法學院研究員

 

The State of Israel has hit something close to rock bottom not only in the war, and not only in the last year, but in the history of the Zionist enterprise, says Prof. Udi Sommer of Tel Aviv University, who is also a research fellow at John Jay College of the City University of New York. This is expressed in a number of ways. As a Jewish and democratic state, Israel has always seen itself as an integral part of the axis of democratic-liberal-Western states. This axis is not only the natural place for the State of Israel, it is also critical to the national security framework of the county in a global reality where there is constant confrontation with the axis Beijing-Moscow-Tehran.

以色列的境遇已經跌至一個歷史低點,這一點不單反映在當前的戰爭局勢上,也不僅僅是過去一年的情況,而是在猶太復國主義的整個歷程中尤為明顯。這項挑戰是多方面的。以色列作為一個堅持猶太民主價值的國家,一直將自己定位在民主自由西方國家的核心軸上。這條軸線對以色列而言不僅是天然的歸屬地,更是其國家安全架構對抗北京-莫斯科-德黑蘭軸心在全球舞台上日益激烈對立中的重要支撐。 

 

From the dawn of its history, under the leadership of figures such as Weizmann and Ben-Gurion, the Zionist movement was based on being profoundly integrated into the international political system. From its very early days, and even before the foundation of the state, the Zionists realized that at the core of their existence there was a necessity in the creation of international alliances. Indeed, that enabled the Zionist vision to become a prosperous and flourishing reality. And the United States has always played a central role. The Americans have been able to orchestrate some of the most important and profound diplomatic processes in the Middle East. There are multiple examples such as the Camp David agreements with Egypt, the peace agreement with Jordan, and the Abraham Accords, which are the most recent example of a successful American intervention in Middle East politics with a meaningfully calming effect on different dimensions of the conflict. In the past several decades, the Unites States of America has been able to manage significant crises in our region, and often with considerable success from the point of view of Israel and from the point of view of Zionism. But the point at which the Israel-US relations is at the present time takes the Zionist enterprise in the opposite direction. Both in the US administration, that is in the White House, as well as on Capitol Hill, where many true friends of Israel are, there is a strong sense of alienation from the current government in Jerusalem. The fact the US has used financial sanctions against Israeli persons and entities, the fact that the vice president of the United States have distinguished the people of Israel from their leaders, and various other examples suggest that Israel increasingly falls out of the category of US favorite allies. This is not to say that a direct confrontation with Iran would go unnoticed in Washington. As US officials at various levels indicated, Israel is not alone in case the conflict emerges from the shadow war it has been for a few years now and turns into an explicit conflagration. But short of such a scenario, the fact that the alliance is going through a rough patch is hard to ignore.

自猶太復國主義運動起源之初,在第一任以色列總統魏茨曼和首任總理本-古里安等建國先驅的領導下,這一運動就旨在深度整合進國際政治體系。猶太復國主義者從很早以前就認識到,建立國際聯盟是他們存續的根本所在,這一戰略使得他們的理想能實現並茁壯成長。美國在此過程中發揮了至關重要的角色,它策動了中東地區一些最為關鍵的外交活動,如和埃及達成的戴維營協議、與約旦的和平條約以及近期的亞伯拉罕協議,這些都顯示了美國對中東地區政治的影響力和緩和衝突的能力。過去幾十年,美國在該地區的危機處理中取得了一定成就,從以色列和猶太復國主義的視角來看是成功的。然而,當前美以關係正逆著猶太復國主義的原有路線而行,不僅是在白宮,即便是在國會山中的以色列盟友中間,對耶路撒冷當局也感到了顯著的疏遠。美國對以色列個體的財政制裁、副總統對以色列人民和其領導層的區分,以及其他事件均表明,以色列正在失去作為美國最受歡迎盟友的地位。這不意味著與伊朗的潛在直接衝突會被華盛頓忽視,美國官員已表明,在明顯衝突爆發時,以色列不會被孤立。但在种情况之外,目前盟友关系所经历艰难时期是而易的。

 

There are multiple reasons for why US-Israel relations have deteriorated to such a degree. But chief among them is the leadership and the people in the decisionmaking circles. Netanyahu and Dermer, the two architects of the relationship in the last decade, failed to read the political map in the United States and to properly manage the strategy of the State of Israel in Washington. The failure was manifested at two levels, both devastating for the relations. Netanyahu and Dermer turned the Israeli issue into a point of contention in American politics. Israeli used to be a bipartisan issue in an otherwise deeply polarized Washington DC. However, the negative ramifications of Netanyahu's speech in Congress in March 2015, coordinated behind the back of the White House and behind the back of President Barack Obama, were particularly destructive. Instead of an issue on which there is broad agreement between Republicans and Democrats, Israel became another reason for friction in the already polarized political reality in Washington. The second level was the choice of party. Netanyahu and Dermer clearly chose the wrong party to put the entire diplomatic capital of the State of Israel on. They unabatedly chose the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Yet, at the moment of truth, it was the Democratic Party and the Democratic President who turned out to be important friends of the State of Israel in time of need. Indeed, short of the support of the US administration controlled by the Democrats, the fate of the State of Israel in the aftermath of October 7 could have been dramatically different.

美以關係陷入困境,關鍵在於決策圈領導力及人事部署的問題。在建構這段關係的過去十年裡,塔尼亞胡和德默未能洞悉美國政治動態,導致以色列在華盛頓的策略失誤。這一失敗在兩個層次上造成了嚴重後果。首先,塔尼亞胡和德默將以色列議題變成了美國政的一個分歧焦點,這一議題在原本就意見分歧的華盛頓政治中,曾是兩大黨派共同支持的少數幾個議題之一。塔尼亞胡和德默讓以色列問題成為了美國政治的分歧所在,儘管這一議題曾經是兩大黨派在分裂的華盛頓所共同支持的。特別是塔尼亞胡在20153月於國會的演,未經白宮及歐巴馬總統的同意,對兩國關係造成了巨大破壞。其次,在選擇支持的政黨方面,塔尼亞胡和德默錯誤地將以色列所有的外交資本投向了共和黨。然而事實證明,在關鍵時刻,民主黨及其總統成為以色列的堅定支持者。如果沒有民主黨領導的美國政府的支持,以色列在107日後的處境可能會完全不同。

The support of the US government is not limited to the military, strategic and diplomatic levels. Even at the level of internal cohesion of the Israeli society, the US has been playing a critical role. President Biden had a vital role in the days after October 7th. The continued existence of the Zionist project and the security and prosperity of the State of Israel depend on the cohesion of Israeli society. But the Israeli leadership went missing in action in the days after October 7. And precisely then we had a friendly, but foreign, leadership of the American administration that in the days after October 7, with the help of President Biden's speeches, with the help of his reassuring words, with the help of his visit to Israel and the hug he gave the families of the hostages and the soldiers who died that day - helped to preserve the internal cohesion of Israeli society. In recent months, instead of taking care of the internal cohesion that is so vital, there is a feeling that the government's actions are sabotaging it, and thus could seriously damage the future of the Zionist project. The conflagration with Iran may further deteriorate the societal cohesion of Israeli society, particularly if the shadow war with Iran turns into a war that unfolds out in the open, with direct confrontations between the two armies. Israel has nuclear capabilities and Iran is very close to acquiring such capabilities if it hasn’t already. Such a direct conflict with bring the Middle East close to the levels of regional conflict of 51 years ago in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

美國政府的支持超越了軍事、戰略和外交等層面。在鞏固以色列社會部團結方面,美國扮演了一個不可或缺的角色。拜登總統在107日之後的幾天起到了至關重要的作用。猶太復國主義的計劃以及以色列國的安全與繁榮依賴社會的緊密團結。但是,在107日後的日子裡,以色列的領導階層卻顯得行動緩慢。在此關鍵時刻,我們得到了美國政府的友好卻異的領導,拜登總統的演講、他的安撫話語、他對以色列的訪問以及他對那天犧牲的士兵及人質家屬的擁抱,這些都對維護 以色列社會的部團結起到了幫助作用。然而,近月來,以色列政府的舉措似乎在破壞這項至關重要的團結,這可能會嚴重損害猶太復國主義計劃的未來。與伊朗的緊張關係可能進一步破壞以色列社會的團結,尤其是如果隱藏的戰爭演變為兩軍之間的公開直接衝突。以色列已經擁有核子能力,而伊朗也非常接近獲得這種能力,如果還沒有的話。這種直接的衝突可能會將中東地區帶回51年前1973年贖罪日戰爭時的區域衝突水準。

The security of the State of Israel depends first of all on the security apparatus of the State of Israel and on the Israel Defense Forces. Yet, Israel’s national security also depends on being a Western liberal democracy, because such a political identity guarantees Israel’s place in the international axis that the United States is leading against the alliances along the Tehran-Moscow-Beijing line. In the reality predating October 7, Israel was an integral part of this axis, which was an important pillar of the country's security. But now, when Israel’s actions may put in peril its position on this axis, it could have real consequences for the national security of Israel. The loosening of the link to the international axis of Western liberal democracies begins with the fact that several of the key democratic allies examine Israel and see how Israeli democracy fails in trying to maintain the most basic standard of accountability and a peaceful transfer of power. These are basic precepts of democracy and Israel has failed in leaving up to those standards. For a proper democracy to persist, those who had failed should be replaced, and there should be a transfer of power.

以色列的國防安全首先取決於自身的安全機構以及國防軍的能力。同時,作為西方自由民主體系的一部分,這一身分對其國家安全同樣至關重要,確保以色列在由美國主導,對立德黑蘭-莫斯科-北京軸線的國際聯盟中佔有一席之地。107日之前,以色列作為該聯盟中的核心成員,對其國家安全有著重要影響。但是,以色列近期的某些行為可能威脅到其在這個軸心上的地位,這對國家安全構成了直接威脅。這種趨勢的起點是,幾個關鍵的民主國家開始質疑以色列,在問責制和和平權力交替——民主體制的基礎標準方面,以色列似乎未能達到預期。民主制度的這些基本準則並沒有被遵循。因此,為了維持民主制度的正常運作,未能履行這些準則的領導階層需要被更換,權力交接也應當順利進行。

 

In a reformed first world country, after October 7, the government had to ask for a renewed mandate from the public. This is what accountability in a democratic system of government is all about. Conversely, in a third world country, the masses would show such a government the door. There would be no other option for the leaders but to forego their positions of power, as public outrage would not allow them to remain in those positions. But Israel is stuck in limbo, neither here nor there, as it is slowly revealed as neither a first world country nor a third world country, and definitely as a country where the democratic institutions, standards and norms are hardly upheld. This reflects on the image of Israel in the world. This is another link in an increasingly long chain of events that gradually loosens our connection with this axis of liberal-western democracies and there is a real chance that if this trend persists, it will lead to international isolation. There are some extremist elements in the current coalition government that think that Israel can go at it alone. However, the tensions with Iran and the staunch support from Israel’s Western allies clearly indicates that going alone is not a real possibility for Israel. The forces are global and go way beyond the land of Israel or even the region of the Middle East. The United States, China, Russia, the EU and many other leading powers in the world are involved, and Israel cannot fight this one alone. It has to remain a part of the Western alliance to survive this war and to thrive once the war is over. The conflict with Iran is a case in point.

美國對以色列的支援不止於軍事、戰略及外交領域。在增強以色列社會凝聚力方面,美國的角色也極為關鍵。特別是在107日之後,拜登總統在促進以色列部團結方面發揮了重要作用。猶太復國主義的未來及以色列的安全與興旺依賴社會的緊密團結。然而,在107日之後的幾日中,以色列領導層的反應遲緩,美國政府的領導則在此關鍵時刻,透過拜登總統的演講、安撫的話語、對以色列的訪問以及對受害家庭的 慰問,發揮了維繫社會團結的作用。不過,近幾個月來,以色列政府的某些行為看似逐步侵蝕這種關鍵的部凝聚力,可能對猶太復國主義的長遠前景造成重大傷害。 與伊朗之間的緊張關係如若從暗戰演變為公開的軍事對峙,可能會進一步破壞以色列社會的團結,這一點在以色列擁有核武能力、伊朗亦可能近在咫尺的情況下更是如此。如果爆發直接衝突,中東地區可能面臨類似51年前1973年贖罪日戰爭時那樣的區域性衝突。

 

The discussion of armaments supplied by the United States and their vital importance for Israel is limited and misses the big picture. The State of Israel depends on the United States of America not only for armaments, but in a much broader sense that is directly related to the security of the State of Israel and to its very existence. The Israeli weapons systems, from the simplest to the most sophisticated, are produced by the Americans or in cooperation with them. The Israeli defense technology is combined with American technology. This is true for anything from AI and Cyber to other technologies where the synergy with the United States is critical. To put it plainly: the American presence in the region and the close cooperation militarily and politically with Israel, are nothing short of critical for to the security of the State of Israel and the continuation of the Zionist project. The reality is that the State of Israel is dependent on the United States. The ongoing conflict with Iran, which has reached a point of potential direct conflict between the State of Israel and the Islamic Republic is but one example. Indeed, the latest moves by the Israeli government may lead to clear and immediate danger if America is not a part of the picture.

美國對以色列的軍事援助及其至關重要性的討論往往過於狹隘,未能觸及其深層的重要性。以色列的安全生存不僅依賴從美國獲得的武器,其整體安全戰略更廣泛地與美國緊密相連。無論是簡易或高端的,以色列的武器體系大多與美國共同研發或由美國製造。以色列在防禦技術上與美國的結合,尤其在人工智慧、網路安全等高科技領域,與美國的合作至關重要。總而言之,美國在該區域的影響力及與以色列在軍事和政治上的緊密協作,對以色列的國家安全和猶太復國主義計劃的延續起著決定性的作用。以色列對美國的深度依賴是不爭的事實。以色列與伊朗的持續緊張關係,現已瀕臨兩國可能直接衝突的邊緣,僅是眾多例證之一。 若缺乏美國參與,以色列政府近期的行動可能迅速帶來顯著且直接的風險。

 

The statement made by President Joe Biden in the first days of the war was critical for the national security and for the survival of Israel. He had one word to say to Israel’s adversaries in the region, chief among them are Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The president warned them all when he said: “Don't". Indeed, this had a real and immediate effect on those enemies in Middle East. The growing sense that such a warning may be less likely in a reality where relations are increasingly unraveling is increasingly a problem for Israel as it is not felt only in Tel Aviv or in Jerusalem but also in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Tehran. The diplomatic umbrella has also been significantly damaged due to the recent discord between Jerusalem and Washington DC. The signals from the White House are not limited to verbal warnings, but rather have culminated into practical moves. This process is unfolding at a fast pace, and certainly faster than many have anticipated. Relations between the countries, between Israel and the United States, are deteriorating, and as a result, the Zionist project is in retreat. Those who try to make the Zionist project based on messianic concepts instead of the true essence of the State of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state - endanger the continued existence of the only democracy in the Middle East. Believing that Israel could go it alone against Iran, that it could resettle Jews in the Gaza Strip, that it could avoid the international cost of a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, is far from the realm of possibility. Israel is lacking a new vision for its national project in the aftermath of the watershed events of October 7. As long as such a vision is lacking, the relations with the United States are in danger and the likelihood of a direct conflict with Iran, with detrimental consequences, is increasing. 

拜登總統戰爭初期的聲明對保障以色列的國家安全和存續極為關鍵。他向區域內的對手,特別是伊朗及其在黎巴嫩、敘利亞、伊拉克和葉門的勢力發出了簡短而明確的警告:「不要」。這個警告立即在中東敵對勢力中產生了影響。但隨著以色列與這些國家關係的日益緊張,如此警告的可能性正在減少,這在特拉維夫、耶路撒冷及整個區域都引發了擔憂。近期耶路撒冷與華盛頓之間的緊張關係嚴重損害了雙邊的外交保障。 而白宮的表態已從言語轉為實際行動,發展速度超乎多數人預期。以色列和美國之間關係的惡化導致猶太復國主義計畫面臨倒退。將猶太復國主義建立在救世主理念上而非以色列作為猶太民主國家的真實基礎上,威脅到了這個中東唯一民主體的未來。假設以色列能夠單獨對抗伊朗,或在加薩地帶重新安置猶太人而不承擔國際後果,這與現實大相逕庭。10月7日後以色列缺乏國家戰略的新願景,這使得以美關係岌岌可危,直接衝突的可能性以及其帶來的負面後果正在升高。



尤迪·萨默Udi Sommer)教授簡介


 

udi sommer.jpg尤迪·薩默是特拉維夫大學政治科學、政府與國際關係學院的副教授,自2019年起也是全球青年學院(Global Young Academy,GYA)和特拉維夫大學布拉瓦特尼克跨學科網路研究中心(Blavatnik Interdisciplinary Cyber Research Center,ICRC)與富布賴特計畫(Fulbright Program)下的美國研究中心的科學成員。2018至2019年,他曾領導以色列青年學院,並於2016至2018年在哥倫比亞大學教授政治科學同時共同主持以色列網路論壇。

 

薩默教授的研究領域廣泛,包括比較政治、美國政治、性別與性政治、司法政治、流行病與政治、網路安全。他在國際知名學術期刊上發表了35篇同行評審文章,包括在《規制與治理》(Regulation & Governance)、《政治行為》(Political Behavior)等雜誌上。 他已出版三本學術著作,包括2019年由劍橋大學出版的專注於生殖權的書籍。 此外,他還在2014年和2016年分別發表了有關美國最高法院議程設置和性少數群體權利的著作。他的一本關於以色列家庭在美國的非小說作品於2010年出版,並受到媒體廣泛關注。

 

薩默教授獲得了許多獎項和研究基金,其中包括與特拉維夫大學同事合作贏得的美國國務院和富布賴特計畫資助的百萬新以色列謝克爾獎金,用於建立一個新的美國研究中心。 此外,他還獲得了瑪麗居禮獎學金、富布賴特博士獎學金和國家科學基金會的博士論文提高獎學金。薩默教授的研究成果在國際政治科學協會年會上展出,並被邀請到中國、印度、挪威和美國等地演講。他在哥倫比亞大學、特拉維夫大學、石溪大學等大學擁有豐富的本科及研究生教學經驗。

 

身為經常受邀的專家評論員,薩默教授在WKGO舊金山電台、以色列各大電視台和廣播電台以及《基督教科學箴言報》、《以色列國土報》等媒體上發聲。他也積極參與社區服務,為公眾演講,為政府和非政府組織提供諮詢,並為殘疾人提供志願服務。在進入學術界之前,薩默教授創立並領導了多個針對貧困背景青少年的社會項目,並接受了臨床心理學的高級培訓。


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